Research & Articles

 pi Economics research available to clients

• July-August 2008: The Currency Carry Trade and Emerging Markets - the Next Phase of the Global Crisis
• June 2008: Japan Remains the Key to Understanding the Financial Future
• May 2008: The Credit Crisis is Not Over - It has Barely Begun
• April 2008: Leveraged Economies Will Sink the Euro
• March 2008: The 'Losses from the Great Unwind' Revisited
• February 2008: Emerging Markets Overview Part 2
• January 2008: The Great Unwinding or the Great Bailout?
• November-December 2007: Emerging Markets Overview Part 1
• October 2007: Global Carry Trade has Survived the Credit Crisis - So Far
• September 2007: Seven Myths About the Credit Crisis
• July-August 2007: How the Carry Trade Bubble is Distorting the Global Economy
• June 2007: Monetary Growth and Deflation
• May 2007: The Losses from 'The Great Unwind' and Who Will Bear Them
• April 2007: The European Extremes of the Global Financial Mania
• March 2007: The Crunch Point for the Credit Bubble and the Global Implications
• February 2007: Ponzi Finance and the Mis-Pricing of Risk
• January 2007: The Credit Bubble and the Yen
• November-December 2006: Chinese and Japanese Intervention, Taiwan, Poland
• October 2006: The Dynamics of the Bubble
• September 2006: The Various Dimensions of the Adjustment in Emerging Market Economies
• July-August 2006: The Economy, the Carry Trade and the Credit Bubble
• June 2006: Emerging Markets Update 2:Turkey, Malaysia, Korea, Czech Republic
• May 2006: The Resolution of the Huge Disequilibrium in Japan
• April 2006: Eve of Destruction
• March 2006: Emerging Markets Update 1: Hungary, Turkey, Brazil, Argentina
• February 2006: Looming Spanish Disaster Points to Folly of ECB Policies
• January 2006: What Explains the Persistence of Global Imbalances?
• November-December 2005: Emerging Markets Part 4: Czech Republic, Poland
• October 2005: The Makings of a 'Total Crisis'
• September 2005: Emerging Markets Part 3: Malaysia, Korea

     August 5, 2008: Oil, the Carry Trade and Markets

     July 14, 2008: Fannie, Freddie, IndyMac

     July 2, 2008: Credit Contraction

     June 18, 2008: Rising Bond Yields

     June 12, 2008: US Flows of Funds Update

     May 13, 2008: Carry Trade and the Yield Curve

     April 15, 2008: Is the Fed Inflating?

     April 5, 2008: Turkish Current Account - Update

     April 2, 2008: US Q4 National Accounts Not Encouraging

     March 5, 2008: No Markets for Old Men

     February 6, 2008: The Dollar

     January 23, 2008: Fuzzy Friends Turn Nasty

     January 10, 2008: Things Fall Apart

     January 3, 2008: Japanese Balance of Payments and the Yen

     December 29, 2007: Financing of US Imbalances

     December 19, 2007: Deflationary Outcome to Credit Bubble & Carry Trade

     November 13, 2007: Despite Rising Commodities, Deflation is Big Threat   

     November 6, 2007: Gold, Yields and Inflation

     November 1, 2007: Lessons from Past Credit Shocks

     October 5, 2007: US House Prices, the Cycle and Inflation

     September 6, 2007: Credit Bust Signals a Recession and Bear Market

     August 22, 2007: Discount Window Borrowings

     August 17, 2007: Update - The Fed Action is a Sell

     August 12, 2007: Liquidity Injections and Rate Cuts

     August 9, 2007: Comment on Markets - Total Financial Meltdown

     June 16, 2007: Carry Trade Bubble and 1980s Dollar Bubble Compared

     June 10, 2007: Different from the Previous Sell-Offs

     June 4, 2007: The Crash Must Be Very Close Now

     May 10, 2007: The Key to Understanding

     May 2, 2007: US Economy and Stock Market Cycle

     April 10, 2007: The Investment Cycle and the Stock Market

     March 2, 2007: US Monetary Policy and the Yen Carry Trade

     February 27, 2007: Thoughts on Markets   

     January 18, 2007: Oil

     January 8, 2007: Update

     December 2, 2006: Yen Manipulation

     November 30, 2006: US Monetary Policy, Dollar and Stock Market

     November 21, 2006: Financial Jenga

     November 15, 2006: The Valuation of US Equities

     November 6, 2006: Japanese Covert Intervention and Implications

     November 2, 2006: Global Money Growth

     October 24, 2006: Gold and the End Game of the Bubble 

     October 11, 2006: Yen Speculative Position Proves Existence of a Bubble 

     September 24, 2006: Honey, I Blew Up the Fund

     September 11, 2006: US National Accounts Mysteries

     September 3, 2006: Implications of  Record Yen Speculative Short Position 

     August 25, 2006: US Interest Rate Structure, the Economy and the Dollar

     August 18, 2006: Japanese Monetary Tightening

     August 1, 2006: Recent US Economic Data

     July 19, 2006: Currency Madness 2

     July 13, 2006: Observations on Markets, Liquidity

     June 8, 2006: Quick Update on Market Developments

     June 2, 2006:Implications of Divergent US, European Monetary Conditions

     May 25, 2006: US Personal Financial Deficit

     May 22, 2006: Update - Watch the Dollar

     May 12, 2006: Brief Thoughts

     April 18, 2006: The Reasons Why a Major Crash May Well be Imminent

     April 6, 2006: Gold, Stocks and the Cycle

     March 17, 2006: Bank of Japan Monetary Policy and the Yen

     March 9, 2006: Crash? - Update

     March 7, 2006: Why are Bond Yields Rising?

     March 3, 2006: Liquidity and Dislocation

     February 10, 2006: Is the Dislocation Beginning?

     February 2, 2006: Currency Madness

     January 23, 2006: Recap and Update

     January 11, 2006: Is the Yield Curve Foretelling a US Recession?

Tim Lee’s Articles

• Inflation is a Bigger Danger than Deflation
  Financial Times, 27 May 2003
• Look Beneath the Golden Gleam
  Financial Times, 15 September 2003
• Seeing Through ‘The Matrix Economy’
  24 November 2003