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Research
pi Economics research samples
Shorter notes:
‘Monthly’ research notes:
pi Economics research available to clients
Monthlies
- October 2011: Europe: Why Bailout Proposals Will Not Work
- September 2011: Severe Global Deflationary Tightening of Financial Conditions
- July-August 2011: Currency Valuations and the Carry Trade
- June 2011: Is the Crisis in Eastern Europe Really Over?
- May 2011: Liquidity Conditions Point to a Massive Dollar Short Squeeze
- April 2011: European Financial Policies are Inherently Contradictory
- March 2011: Monetary Policy Developments in Japan and the US and Their Consequences
- February 2011: A Comparison of US and UK Reveals the Fragility of the US Bubble Economy
- January 2011: Why the European Crisis Cannot be Solved with Bailout Policies
- November-December 2010: A Perspective on the US-China Imbalance
- October 2010: Quantitative Easing, the Ponzi Dynamic and the Asset Bubble
- September 2010: The Biggest Emerging Market Bubbles
- July-August 2010: European Credit Losses Will Need to be Alleviated Through Inflation
- June 2010: The Likely Scale of Bank Credit Losses in Spain and the Rest of Europe
- May 2010: The Super-Bubble is Bursting. What Comes Next?
- April 2010: National Savings Rates Help Differentiate Safe Havens from Basket Cases
- March 2010: Emerging Economy Cycle Turning Down
- February 2010: Sovereign CDS Have Signalled the Next Phase of the Global Crisis
- January 2010: Governments on the Edge of Bankruptcy
- November-December 2009: Is Japan Going Bankrupt?
- October 2009: The Role and Implications of the Currency Carry Trade in the Latest Bubble
- September 2009: The 'Recovery' is Already Over
- July-August 2009: China, India, South Africa
- June 2009: Where Are We in the 'Great Unwind'?
- May 2009: Savings, Investment and Imbalances in Emerging Economies
- April 2009: Quantitative Easing and Inflation
- March 2009: The Real Economy Aspects of the Crisis
- February 2009: What Does the Fed Balance Sheet Tell Us About Inflation or Deflation?
- January 2009: Emerging Market Bailouts Will Fail
- November-December 2008: Deleveraging, Bailouts and Monetary Instability
- October 2008: Emerging Market Currency Collapses
- September 2008: A Bailout Will Not Save the Markets or the Economy
- July-August 2008: The Currency Carry Trade and Emerging Markets - the Next Phase of the Global Crisis
- June 2008: Japan Remains the Key to Understanding the Financial Future
- May 2008: The Credit Crisis is Not Over - It has Barely Begun
- April 2008: Leveraged Economies Will Sink the Euro
- March 2008: The 'Losses from the Great Unwind' Revisited
- February 2008: Emerging Markets Overview Part 2
- January 2008: The Great Unwinding or the Great Bailout?
- November-December 2007: Emerging Markets Overview Part 1
- October 2007: Global Carry Trade has Survived the Credit Crisis - So Far
- September 2007: Seven Myths About the Credit Crisis
- July-August 2007: How the Carry Trade Bubble is Distorting the Global Economy
- June 2007: Monetary Growth and Deflation
- May 2007: The Losses from 'The Great Unwind' and Who Will Bear Them
- April 2007: The European Extremes of the Global Financial Mania
- March 2007: The Crunch Point for the Credit Bubble and the Global Implications
- February 2007: Ponzi Finance and the Mis-Pricing of Risk
- January 2007: The Credit Bubble and the Yen
- November-December 2006: Chinese and Japanese Intervention, Taiwan, Poland
- October 2006: The Dynamics of the Bubble
- September 2006: The Various Dimensions of the Adjustment in Emerging Market Economies
- July-August 2006: The Economy, the Carry Trade and the Credit Bubble
- June 2006: Emerging Markets Update 2:Turkey, Malaysia, Korea, Czech Republic
- May 2006: The Resolution of the Huge Disequilibrium in Japan
- April 2006: Eve of Destruction
- March 2006: Emerging Markets Update 1: Hungary, Turkey, Brazil, Argentina
- February 2006: Looming Spanish Disaster Points to Folly of ECB Policies
- January 2006: What Explains the Persistence of Global Imbalances?
- November-December 2005: Emerging Markets Part 4: Czech Republic, Poland
- October 2005: The Makings of a 'Total Crisis'
- September 2005: Emerging Markets Part 3: Malaysia, Korea
Short Notes
- November 17, 2011: Carry Trade, Emerging Market Update
- September 16, 2011: Brief Follow-Up Note on Euro and Dollar Carry Trade
- September 12, 2011: European Debt Crisis Finally Developing into a Currency Crisis
- August 23, 2011: US Money and Credit Statistics
- August 8, 2011: Thoughts on the Market Dislocation
- July 25, 2011: Latest Eurozone Bailout
- July 20, 2011: More on Gold
- July 13, 2011: Italy Stress Confirms that ECB Policy is Untenable
- July 7, 2011: Risk of Implosion of the Precious Metals Markets
- June 29, 2011: End of QE2 Means a Severe Tightening of Financial Conditions
- June 23, 2011: Update on Savings Rates as Risks of Deflationary Implosion Continue to Increase
- April 8, 2011: Blow-Off Phase of One of the Greatest Bubbles
- March 11, 2011: Japanese Earthquake - Market Tipping Point?
- March 9, 2011: Is Gold a Leading Indicator for this Bubble (and Burst)?
- February 23, 2011: Commodities and Equities Markets
- January 28, 2011: Turkey's Monetary Policy and Implications
- January 5, 2011: Taking GDP from the Future
- November 23, 2010: Currency Implications of Carry Trade Unravelling
- November 12, 2010: European Debt: No Easy Solution
- November 4, 2010: Markets Post-QE2
- October 6, 2010: Gold Fundamentals and Implications
- August 26, 2010: Switzerland Foreign Exchange Intervention and Implications (Part 2)
- August 19, 2010: Switzerland Foreign Exchange Intervention and Implications (Part 1)
- August 9, 2010: The Fed, Q.E. and Markets
- August 5, 2010: US National Accounts Revisions
- July 7, 2010: Treasury Bond Yield Forecast and Market Developments
- June 11, 2010: The Current Relationship Between US Money Supply and the Stock Market
- May 10, 2010: Death Knell for the Euro
- May 4, 2010: Signs That This Could be the Crash
- April 27, 2010: The US Stock Market is Trading at Bubble Valuations
- April 22, 2010: Global Implications of the Greek Crisis
- April 13, 2010: Likely Developments Following the Greek Bailout
- March 26, 2010: No Savings, Excessive Debt and Deflation
- February 2, 2010: Coming Greek Bailout and Some Implications
- January 19, 2010: More on Liquidity and Markets
- January 7, 2010: Fed Policy: Update and Some Basic Principles
- December 2, 2009: Lack of Money Growth Points to Deflation
- November 23, 2009: Gold is Roughly Twice Fair Value
- November 11, 2009: The Savings Collapse and Inflation
- November 4, 2009: Fed Balance Sheet, Credit and Money
- October 19, 2009: I Have Probably Been Wrong About Government Bonds
- October 12, 2009: Bank Credit at New Low
- October 1, 2009: Shifting Trends in the Carry Trade
- September 25, 2009: Government Intervention and Market Valuation
- August 24, 2009: The Development of Correlations Across Markets
- August 19, 2009: Could There Be a Complete Market Collapse?
- August 14, 2009: Corporate Profits and Stock Market Valuation
- July 23, 2009: Self-Destructive Markets
- July 17, 2009: What are Government Bond Yields Telling Us?
- June 9, 2009: The Bubble and the Carry Trade
- May 18, 2009: Money, Credit and the Yield Curve
- May 8, 2009: Questions and Answers
- May 1, 2009: US Economy is Not About to Recover
- March 18, 2009: Fed Q.E.
- March 6, 2009: Hungary and Turkey Brief Update
- March 2, 2009: Yen Fundamentals
- February 5, 2009: Bad Banks and Sovereign Credit Risk
- December 24, 2008: Concluding Thoughts on an Extraordinary Year
- December 17, 2008: The Fed and the Yen
- December 4, 2008: Is the Fed Inflating Yet?
- November 13, 2008: US Stock Market is Not Cheap
- October 8, 2008: Very Very Scary
- October 6, 2008: Severe Monetary Dislocation
- September 21, 2008: More Thoughts on the Bailout
- September 18, 2008: Latest Developments
- September 15, 2008: Implications of Lehman Bankruptcy
- September 12, 2008: Deflation the New Theme in Markets
- September 5, 2008: Update - Credit Contraction Intensifies
- August 13, 2008: Carry Trade Meltdown? - Update
- August 5, 2008: Oil, the Carry Trade and Markets
- July 14, 2008: Fannie, Freddie, IndyMac
- July 2, 2008: Credit Contraction
- June 18, 2008: Rising Bond Yields
- June 12, 2008: US Flows of Funds Update
- May 13, 2008: Carry Trade and the Yield Curve
- April 15, 2008: Is the Fed Inflating?
- April 5, 2008: Turkish Current Account - Update
- April 2, 2008: US Q4 National Accounts Not Encouraging
- March 5, 2008: No Markets for Old Men
- February 6, 2008: The Dollar
- January 23, 2008: Fuzzy Friends Turn Nasty
- January 10, 2008: Things Fall Apart
- January 3, 2008: Japanese Balance of Payments and the Yen
- December 29, 2007: Financing of US Imbalances
- December 19, 2007: Deflationary Outcome to Credit Bubble & Carry Trade
- November 13, 2007: Despite Rising Commodities, Deflation is Big Threat
- November 6, 2007: Gold, Yields and Inflation
- November 1, 2007: Lessons from Past Credit Shocks
- October 5, 2007: US House Prices, the Cycle and Inflation
- September 6, 2007: Credit Bust Signals a Recession and Bear Market
- August 22, 2007: Discount Window Borrowings
- August 17, 2007: Update - The Fed Action is a Sell
- August 12, 2007: Liquidity Injections and Rate Cuts
- August 9, 2007: Comment on Markets - Total Financial Meltdown
- June 16, 2007: Carry Trade Bubble and 1980s Dollar Bubble Compared
- June 10, 2007: Different from the Previous Sell-Offs
- June 4, 2007: The Crash Must Be Very Close Now
- May 10, 2007: The Key to Understanding
- May 2, 2007: US Economy and Stock Market Cycle
- April 10, 2007: The Investment Cycle and the Stock Market
- March 2, 2007: US Monetary Policy and the Yen Carry Trade
- February 27, 2007: Thoughts on Markets
- January 18, 2007: Oil
- January 8, 2007: Update
- December 2, 2006: Yen Manipulation
- November 30, 2006: US Monetary Policy, Dollar and Stock Market
- November 21, 2006: Financial Jenga
- November 15, 2006: The Valuation of US Equities
- November 6, 2006: Japanese Covert Intervention and Implications
- November 2, 2006: Global Money Growth
- October 24, 2006: Gold and the End Game of the Bubble
- October 11, 2006: Yen Speculative Position Proves Existence of a Bubble
- September 24, 2006: Honey, I Blew Up the Fund
- September 11, 2006: US National Accounts Mysteries
- September 3, 2006: Implications of Record Yen Speculative Short Position
- August 25, 2006: US Interest Rate Structure, the Economy and the Dollar
- August 18, 2006: Japanese Monetary Tightening
- August 1, 2006: Recent US Economic Data
- July 19, 2006: Currency Madness 2
- July 13, 2006: Observations on Markets, Liquidity
- June 8, 2006: Quick Update on Market Developments
- June 2, 2006:Implications of Divergent US, European Monetary Conditions
- May 25, 2006: US Personal Financial Deficit
- May 22, 2006: Update - Watch the Dollar
- May 12, 2006: Brief Thoughts
- April 18, 2006: The Reasons Why a Major Crash May Well be Imminent
- April 6, 2006: Gold, Stocks and the Cycle
- March 17, 2006: Bank of Japan Monetary Policy and the Yen
- March 9, 2006: Crash? - Update
- March 7, 2006: Why are Bond Yields Rising?
- March 3, 2006: Liquidity and Dislocation
- February 10, 2006: Is the Dislocation Beginning?
- February 2, 2006: Currency Madness
- January 23, 2006: Recap and Update
- January 11, 2006: Is the Yield Curve Foretelling a US Recession?
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