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Research

pi Economics research samples

Shorter notes:

‘Monthly’ research notes:

pi Economics research available to clients

Monthlies

  • June 2009: Where Are We in the 'Great Unwind'?
  • May 2009: Savings, Investment and Imbalances in Emerging Economies
  • April 2009: Quantitative Easing and Inflation
  • March 2009: The Real Economy Aspects of the Crisis
  • February 2009: What Does the Fed Balance Sheet Tell Us About Inflation or Deflation?
  • January 2009: Emerging Market Bailouts Will Fail
  • November-December 2008: Deleveraging, Bailouts and Monetary Instability
  • October 2008: Emerging Market Currency Collapses
  • September 2008: A Bailout Will Not Save the Markets or the Economy
  • July-August 2008: The Currency Carry Trade and Emerging Markets - the Next Phase of the Global Crisis
  • June 2008: Japan Remains the Key to Understanding the Financial Future
  • May 2008: The Credit Crisis is Not Over - It has Barely Begun
  • April 2008: Leveraged Economies Will Sink the Euro
  • March 2008: The 'Losses from the Great Unwind' Revisited
  • February 2008: Emerging Markets Overview Part 2
  • January 2008: The Great Unwinding or the Great Bailout?
  • November-December 2007: Emerging Markets Overview Part 1
  • October 2007: Global Carry Trade has Survived the Credit Crisis - So Far
  • September 2007: Seven Myths About the Credit Crisis
  • July-August 2007: How the Carry Trade Bubble is Distorting the Global Economy
  • June 2007: Monetary Growth and Deflation
  • May 2007: The Losses from 'The Great Unwind' and Who Will Bear Them
  • April 2007: The European Extremes of the Global Financial Mania
  • March 2007: The Crunch Point for the Credit Bubble and the Global Implications
  • February 2007: Ponzi Finance and the Mis-Pricing of Risk
  • January 2007: The Credit Bubble and the Yen
  • November-December 2006: Chinese and Japanese Intervention, Taiwan, Poland
  • October 2006: The Dynamics of the Bubble
  • September 2006: The Various Dimensions of the Adjustment in Emerging Market Economies
  • July-August 2006: The Economy, the Carry Trade and the Credit Bubble
  • June 2006: Emerging Markets Update 2:Turkey, Malaysia, Korea, Czech Republic
  • May 2006: The Resolution of the Huge Disequilibrium in Japan
  • April 2006: Eve of Destruction
  • March 2006: Emerging Markets Update 1: Hungary, Turkey, Brazil, Argentina
  • February 2006: Looming Spanish Disaster Points to Folly of ECB Policies
  • January 2006: What Explains the Persistence of Global Imbalances?
  • November-December 2005: Emerging Markets Part 4: Czech Republic, Poland
  • October 2005: The Makings of a 'Total Crisis'
  • September 2005: Emerging Markets Part 3: Malaysia, Korea

Short Notes

  • June 9, 2009: The Bubble and the Carry Trade
  • May 18, 2009: Money, Credit and the Yield Curve
  • May 8, 2009: Questions and Answers
  • May 1, 2009: US Economy is Not About to Recover
  • March 18, 2009: Fed Q.E.
  • March 6, 2009: Hungary and Turkey Brief Update
  • March 2, 2009: Yen Fundamentals
  • February 5, 2009: Bad Banks and Sovereign Credit Risk
  • December 24, 2008: Concluding Thoughts on an Extraordinary Year
  • December 17, 2008: The Fed and the Yen
  • December 4, 2008: Is the Fed Inflating Yet?
  • November 13, 2008: US Stock Market is Not Cheap
  • October 8, 2008: Very Very Scary
  • October 6, 2008: Severe Monetary Dislocation 
  • September 21, 2008: More Thoughts on the Bailout
  • September 18, 2008: Latest Developments
  • September 15, 2008: Implications of Lehman Bankruptcy
  • September 12, 2008: Deflation the New Theme in Markets
  • September 5, 2008: Update - Credit Contraction Intensifies
  • August 13, 2008: Carry Trade Meltdown? - Update
  • August 5, 2008: Oil, the Carry Trade and Markets
  • July 14, 2008: Fannie, Freddie, IndyMac
  • July 2, 2008: Credit Contraction
  • June 18, 2008: Rising Bond Yields
  • June 12, 2008: US Flows of Funds Update
  • May 13, 2008: Carry Trade and the Yield Curve
  • April 15, 2008: Is the Fed Inflating?
  • April 5, 2008: Turkish Current Account - Update
  • April 2, 2008: US Q4 National Accounts Not Encouraging
  • March 5, 2008: No Markets for Old Men
  • February 6, 2008: The Dollar
  • January 23, 2008: Fuzzy Friends Turn Nasty
  • January 10, 2008: Things Fall Apart
  • January 3, 2008: Japanese Balance of Payments and the Yen
  • December 29, 2007: Financing of US Imbalances
  • December 19, 2007: Deflationary Outcome to Credit Bubble & Carry Trade
  • November 13, 2007: Despite Rising Commodities, Deflation is Big Threat   
  • November 6, 2007: Gold, Yields and Inflation
  • November 1, 2007: Lessons from Past Credit Shocks
  • October 5, 2007: US House Prices, the Cycle and Inflation
  • September 6, 2007: Credit Bust Signals a Recession and Bear Market
  • August 22, 2007: Discount Window Borrowings
  • August 17, 2007: Update - The Fed Action is a Sell
  • August 12, 2007: Liquidity Injections and Rate Cuts
  • August 9, 2007: Comment on Markets - Total Financial Meltdown
  • June 16, 2007: Carry Trade Bubble and 1980s Dollar Bubble Compared
  • June 10, 2007: Different from the Previous Sell-Offs
  • June 4, 2007: The Crash Must Be Very Close Now
  • May 10, 2007: The Key to Understanding
  • May 2, 2007: US Economy and Stock Market Cycle
  • April 10, 2007: The Investment Cycle and the Stock Market
  • March 2, 2007: US Monetary Policy and the Yen Carry Trade
  • February 27, 2007: Thoughts on Markets   
  • January 18, 2007: Oil
  • January 8, 2007: Update
  • December 2, 2006: Yen Manipulation
  • November 30, 2006: US Monetary Policy, Dollar and Stock Market
  • November 21, 2006: Financial Jenga
  • November 15, 2006: The Valuation of US Equities
  • November 6, 2006: Japanese Covert Intervention and Implications
  • November 2, 2006: Global Money Growth
  • October 24, 2006: Gold and the End Game of the Bubble 
  • October 11, 2006: Yen Speculative Position Proves Existence of a Bubble 
  • September 24, 2006: Honey, I Blew Up the Fund
  • September 11, 2006: US National Accounts Mysteries
  • September 3, 2006: Implications of  Record Yen Speculative Short Position 
  • August 25, 2006: US Interest Rate Structure, the Economy and the Dollar
  • August 18, 2006: Japanese Monetary Tightening
  • August 1, 2006: Recent US Economic Data
  • July 19, 2006: Currency Madness 2
  • July 13, 2006: Observations on Markets, Liquidity
  • June 8, 2006: Quick Update on Market Developments
  • June 2, 2006:Implications of Divergent US, European Monetary Conditions
  • May 25, 2006: US Personal Financial Deficit
  • May 22, 2006: Update - Watch the Dollar
  • May 12, 2006: Brief Thoughts
  • April 18, 2006: The Reasons Why a Major Crash May Well be Imminent
  • April 6, 2006: Gold, Stocks and the Cycle
  • March 17, 2006: Bank of Japan Monetary Policy and the Yen
  • March 9, 2006: Crash? - Update
  • March 7, 2006: Why are Bond Yields Rising?
  • March 3, 2006: Liquidity and Dislocation
  • February 10, 2006: Is the Dislocation Beginning?
  • February 2, 2006: Currency Madness
  • January 23, 2006: Recap and Update
  • January 11, 2006: Is the Yield Curve Foretelling a US Recession?