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Research

pi Economics research samples

Shorter notes:

‘Monthly’ research notes:

pi Economics research available to clients

Monthlies

  • October 2011: Europe: Why Bailout Proposals Will Not Work
  • September 2011: Severe Global Deflationary Tightening of Financial Conditions
  • July-August 2011: Currency Valuations and the Carry Trade
  • June 2011: Is the Crisis in Eastern Europe Really Over?
  • May 2011: Liquidity Conditions Point to a Massive Dollar Short Squeeze
  • April 2011: European Financial Policies are Inherently Contradictory
  • March 2011: Monetary Policy Developments in Japan and the US and Their Consequences
  • February 2011: A Comparison of US and UK Reveals the Fragility of the US Bubble Economy
  • January 2011: Why the European Crisis Cannot be Solved with Bailout Policies
  • November-December 2010: A Perspective on the US-China Imbalance
  • October 2010: Quantitative Easing, the Ponzi Dynamic and the Asset Bubble
  • September 2010: The Biggest Emerging Market Bubbles
  • July-August 2010: European Credit Losses Will Need to be Alleviated Through Inflation
  • June 2010: The Likely Scale of Bank Credit Losses in Spain and the Rest of Europe
  • May 2010: The Super-Bubble is Bursting. What Comes Next?
  • April 2010: National Savings Rates Help Differentiate Safe Havens from Basket Cases
  • March 2010: Emerging Economy Cycle Turning Down
  • February 2010: Sovereign CDS Have Signalled the Next Phase of the Global Crisis
  • January 2010: Governments on the Edge of Bankruptcy
  • November-December 2009: Is Japan Going Bankrupt?
  • October 2009: The Role and Implications of the Currency Carry Trade in the Latest Bubble
  • September 2009: The 'Recovery' is Already Over
  • July-August 2009: China, India, South Africa
  • June 2009: Where Are We in the 'Great Unwind'?
  • May 2009: Savings, Investment and Imbalances in Emerging Economies
  • April 2009: Quantitative Easing and Inflation
  • March 2009: The Real Economy Aspects of the Crisis
  • February 2009: What Does the Fed Balance Sheet Tell Us About Inflation or Deflation?
  • January 2009: Emerging Market Bailouts Will Fail
  • November-December 2008: Deleveraging, Bailouts and Monetary Instability
  • October 2008: Emerging Market Currency Collapses
  • September 2008: A Bailout Will Not Save the Markets or the Economy
  • July-August 2008: The Currency Carry Trade and Emerging Markets - the Next Phase of the Global Crisis
  • June 2008: Japan Remains the Key to Understanding the Financial Future
  • May 2008: The Credit Crisis is Not Over - It has Barely Begun
  • April 2008: Leveraged Economies Will Sink the Euro
  • March 2008: The 'Losses from the Great Unwind' Revisited
  • February 2008: Emerging Markets Overview Part 2
  • January 2008: The Great Unwinding or the Great Bailout?
  • November-December 2007: Emerging Markets Overview Part 1
  • October 2007: Global Carry Trade has Survived the Credit Crisis - So Far
  • September 2007: Seven Myths About the Credit Crisis
  • July-August 2007: How the Carry Trade Bubble is Distorting the Global Economy
  • June 2007: Monetary Growth and Deflation
  • May 2007: The Losses from 'The Great Unwind' and Who Will Bear Them
  • April 2007: The European Extremes of the Global Financial Mania
  • March 2007: The Crunch Point for the Credit Bubble and the Global Implications
  • February 2007: Ponzi Finance and the Mis-Pricing of Risk
  • January 2007: The Credit Bubble and the Yen
  • November-December 2006: Chinese and Japanese Intervention, Taiwan, Poland
  • October 2006: The Dynamics of the Bubble
  • September 2006: The Various Dimensions of the Adjustment in Emerging Market Economies
  • July-August 2006: The Economy, the Carry Trade and the Credit Bubble
  • June 2006: Emerging Markets Update 2:Turkey, Malaysia, Korea, Czech Republic
  • May 2006: The Resolution of the Huge Disequilibrium in Japan
  • April 2006: Eve of Destruction
  • March 2006: Emerging Markets Update 1: Hungary, Turkey, Brazil, Argentina
  • February 2006: Looming Spanish Disaster Points to Folly of ECB Policies
  • January 2006: What Explains the Persistence of Global Imbalances?
  • November-December 2005: Emerging Markets Part 4: Czech Republic, Poland
  • October 2005: The Makings of a 'Total Crisis'
  • September 2005: Emerging Markets Part 3: Malaysia, Korea

Short Notes

  • November 17, 2011: Carry Trade, Emerging Market Update
  • September 16, 2011: Brief Follow-Up Note on Euro and Dollar Carry Trade
  • September 12, 2011: European Debt Crisis Finally Developing into a Currency Crisis
  • August 23, 2011: US Money and Credit Statistics
  • August 8, 2011: Thoughts on the Market Dislocation
  • July 25, 2011: Latest Eurozone Bailout
  • July 20, 2011: More on Gold
  • July 13, 2011: Italy Stress Confirms that ECB Policy is Untenable
  • July 7, 2011: Risk of Implosion of the Precious Metals Markets
  • June 29, 2011: End of QE2 Means a Severe Tightening of Financial Conditions
  • June 23, 2011: Update on Savings Rates as Risks of Deflationary Implosion Continue to Increase
  • April 8, 2011: Blow-Off Phase of One of the Greatest Bubbles
  • March 11, 2011: Japanese Earthquake - Market Tipping Point?
  • March 9, 2011: Is Gold a Leading Indicator for this Bubble (and Burst)?
  • February 23, 2011: Commodities and Equities Markets
  • January 28, 2011: Turkey's Monetary Policy and Implications
  • January 5, 2011: Taking GDP from the Future
  • November 23, 2010: Currency Implications of Carry Trade Unravelling
  • November 12, 2010: European Debt: No Easy Solution
  • November 4, 2010: Markets Post-QE2
  • October 6, 2010: Gold Fundamentals and Implications
  • August 26, 2010: Switzerland Foreign Exchange Intervention and Implications (Part 2)
  • August 19, 2010: Switzerland Foreign Exchange Intervention and Implications (Part 1)
  • August 9, 2010: The Fed, Q.E. and Markets
  • August 5, 2010: US National Accounts Revisions
  • July 7, 2010: Treasury Bond Yield Forecast and Market Developments
  • June 11, 2010: The Current Relationship Between US Money Supply and the Stock Market
  • May 10, 2010: Death Knell for the Euro
  • May 4, 2010: Signs That This Could be the Crash
  • April 27, 2010: The US Stock Market is Trading at Bubble Valuations
  • April 22, 2010: Global Implications of the Greek Crisis
  • April 13, 2010: Likely Developments Following the Greek Bailout
  • March 26, 2010: No Savings, Excessive Debt and Deflation
  • February 2, 2010: Coming Greek Bailout and Some Implications
  • January 19, 2010: More on Liquidity and Markets
  • January 7, 2010: Fed Policy: Update and Some Basic Principles
  • December 2, 2009: Lack of Money Growth Points to Deflation
  • November 23, 2009: Gold is Roughly Twice Fair Value
  • November 11, 2009: The Savings Collapse and Inflation
  • November 4, 2009: Fed Balance Sheet, Credit and Money
  • October 19, 2009: I Have Probably Been Wrong About Government Bonds
  • October 12, 2009: Bank Credit at New Low
  • October 1, 2009: Shifting Trends in the Carry Trade
  • September 25, 2009: Government Intervention and Market Valuation
  • August 24, 2009: The Development of Correlations Across Markets
  • August 19, 2009: Could There Be a Complete Market Collapse?
  • August 14, 2009: Corporate Profits and Stock Market Valuation
  • July 23, 2009: Self-Destructive Markets
  • July 17, 2009: What are Government Bond Yields Telling Us?
  • June 9, 2009: The Bubble and the Carry Trade
  • May 18, 2009: Money, Credit and the Yield Curve
  • May 8, 2009: Questions and Answers
  • May 1, 2009: US Economy is Not About to Recover
  • March 18, 2009: Fed Q.E.
  • March 6, 2009: Hungary and Turkey Brief Update
  • March 2, 2009: Yen Fundamentals
  • February 5, 2009: Bad Banks and Sovereign Credit Risk
  • December 24, 2008: Concluding Thoughts on an Extraordinary Year
  • December 17, 2008: The Fed and the Yen
  • December 4, 2008: Is the Fed Inflating Yet?
  • November 13, 2008: US Stock Market is Not Cheap
  • October 8, 2008: Very Very Scary
  • October 6, 2008: Severe Monetary Dislocation 
  • September 21, 2008: More Thoughts on the Bailout
  • September 18, 2008: Latest Developments
  • September 15, 2008: Implications of Lehman Bankruptcy
  • September 12, 2008: Deflation the New Theme in Markets
  • September 5, 2008: Update - Credit Contraction Intensifies
  • August 13, 2008: Carry Trade Meltdown? - Update
  • August 5, 2008: Oil, the Carry Trade and Markets
  • July 14, 2008: Fannie, Freddie, IndyMac
  • July 2, 2008: Credit Contraction
  • June 18, 2008: Rising Bond Yields
  • June 12, 2008: US Flows of Funds Update
  • May 13, 2008: Carry Trade and the Yield Curve
  • April 15, 2008: Is the Fed Inflating?
  • April 5, 2008: Turkish Current Account - Update
  • April 2, 2008: US Q4 National Accounts Not Encouraging
  • March 5, 2008: No Markets for Old Men
  • February 6, 2008: The Dollar
  • January 23, 2008: Fuzzy Friends Turn Nasty
  • January 10, 2008: Things Fall Apart
  • January 3, 2008: Japanese Balance of Payments and the Yen
  • December 29, 2007: Financing of US Imbalances
  • December 19, 2007: Deflationary Outcome to Credit Bubble & Carry Trade
  • November 13, 2007: Despite Rising Commodities, Deflation is Big Threat   
  • November 6, 2007: Gold, Yields and Inflation
  • November 1, 2007: Lessons from Past Credit Shocks
  • October 5, 2007: US House Prices, the Cycle and Inflation
  • September 6, 2007: Credit Bust Signals a Recession and Bear Market
  • August 22, 2007: Discount Window Borrowings
  • August 17, 2007: Update - The Fed Action is a Sell
  • August 12, 2007: Liquidity Injections and Rate Cuts
  • August 9, 2007: Comment on Markets - Total Financial Meltdown
  • June 16, 2007: Carry Trade Bubble and 1980s Dollar Bubble Compared
  • June 10, 2007: Different from the Previous Sell-Offs
  • June 4, 2007: The Crash Must Be Very Close Now
  • May 10, 2007: The Key to Understanding
  • May 2, 2007: US Economy and Stock Market Cycle
  • April 10, 2007: The Investment Cycle and the Stock Market
  • March 2, 2007: US Monetary Policy and the Yen Carry Trade
  • February 27, 2007: Thoughts on Markets   
  • January 18, 2007: Oil
  • January 8, 2007: Update
  • December 2, 2006: Yen Manipulation
  • November 30, 2006: US Monetary Policy, Dollar and Stock Market
  • November 21, 2006: Financial Jenga
  • November 15, 2006: The Valuation of US Equities
  • November 6, 2006: Japanese Covert Intervention and Implications
  • November 2, 2006: Global Money Growth
  • October 24, 2006: Gold and the End Game of the Bubble 
  • October 11, 2006: Yen Speculative Position Proves Existence of a Bubble 
  • September 24, 2006: Honey, I Blew Up the Fund
  • September 11, 2006: US National Accounts Mysteries
  • September 3, 2006: Implications of  Record Yen Speculative Short Position 
  • August 25, 2006: US Interest Rate Structure, the Economy and the Dollar
  • August 18, 2006: Japanese Monetary Tightening
  • August 1, 2006: Recent US Economic Data
  • July 19, 2006: Currency Madness 2
  • July 13, 2006: Observations on Markets, Liquidity
  • June 8, 2006: Quick Update on Market Developments
  • June 2, 2006:Implications of Divergent US, European Monetary Conditions
  • May 25, 2006: US Personal Financial Deficit
  • May 22, 2006: Update - Watch the Dollar
  • May 12, 2006: Brief Thoughts
  • April 18, 2006: The Reasons Why a Major Crash May Well be Imminent
  • April 6, 2006: Gold, Stocks and the Cycle
  • March 17, 2006: Bank of Japan Monetary Policy and the Yen
  • March 9, 2006: Crash? - Update
  • March 7, 2006: Why are Bond Yields Rising?
  • March 3, 2006: Liquidity and Dislocation
  • February 10, 2006: Is the Dislocation Beginning?
  • February 2, 2006: Currency Madness
  • January 23, 2006: Recap and Update
  • January 11, 2006: Is the Yield Curve Foretelling a US Recession?