pi Economics research samples
Shorter notes:
- The Crash Must Be Very Close Now
June 4, 2007 - Things Fall Apart
January 10, 2008 - Credit Contraction
July 2, 2008
‘Monthly’ research notes:
- Ponzi Finance and the Mis-Pricing of Risk, February 2007
- The Credit Crisis is Not Over – It has Barely Begun, May 2008
- The Currency Carry Trade and Emerging Markets – the Next Phase of the Global Crisis, July-August 2008
pi Economics research available to clients
Monthlies
- February 2015: Summary of the pi Economics Perspective
- January 2015: Implications of the Oil Carry Trade Crash
- November-December 2014: The UK is a Bubble Economy and the Eurozone is Not
- October 2014: The Relationship Between the Carry Regime and Deflation
- September 2014: Understanding Volatility and the Nature of Carry Trades
- July-August 2014: Potential Yen Strength Threatens a Japanese Deflation Shock
- June 2014: What Explains the Pattern of Financial Inflows into Key Emerging Economies?
- May 2014: Three Unconventional Approaches to Estimating the Overvaluation of US Financial Assets and Implications for Fed Policy
- April 2014: Eurozone Credit Contracts but Debt Overhang Remains
- March 2014: The Global Debt Disaster and Where it Will Manifest
- February 2014: The Potential for a Deflation Shock in Europe and the US
Short Notes
- February 2, 2015: Greece and the ECB’s QE Program
- January 26, 2015: QE, Risk Sharing and the Euro
- January 20, 2015: What to Look For Following ECB QE
- January 15, 2015: Swiss Franc Implications
- January 12, 2015: Follow-up on Oil and the Carry Trade
- December 15, 2014: Carry Contraction Intensifies
- November 28, 2014: Commodity Prices and Exports Growth
- November 20, 2014: The Evolution of Global Monetary Conditions
- October 30, 2014: Money Growth After the End of QE
- October 13, 2014: The Carry Crash and QE4 – What to Look For
- October 2, 2014: Is This the Beginning of the Carry Crash?
- September 3, 2014: ECB QE May Well Reveal the True Cost of Interventionist Monetary Policies
- August 15, 2014: Dollar Carry Trade to Face Renewed Pressure
- July 29, 2014: Closer Look at the China Carry Trade
- July 21, 2014: Weak Links
- July 3, 2014: Moneyness, Risk and Inflation or Deflation
- June 12, 2014: Eurozone After the ECB Action
- May 30, 2014: Liquidity Conditions Update
- May 5, 2014: Vanishing Point
- April 23, 2014: Recent Developments in the Currency Carry Trade
- April 3, 2014: Liquidity Provision and the Nature of Bubbles and Crises
- March 11, 2014: Ever Closer to the Global Deflation Shock
- February 27, 2014: China and the Carry Trade
- February 5, 2014: The Deflation Shock Has Begun
- January 30, 2014: Turkey Rate Rise Will Not Save the Lira
- January 28, 2014: Real Treasury Yields and the Dynamic of the Asset Bubble
- January 16, 2014: Monetary Trends in the Fragile Five Highlight the Dire Outlook for Turkey
- December 12, 2013: The Eurozone Monetary Downturn is Entering a More Dangerous Phase
- November 15, 2013: Carry, Leverage and Corporate Profits
- November 1, 2013: The Big Picture
- October 28, 2013: The Flow of Funds and Leverage in the US Economy
- September 20, 2013: Markets Summary and Forecast
- August 29, 2013: Some Monetary Fundamentals
- August 15, 2013: US GDP and Savings Revisions
- August 2, 2013: Carry Trade Currency Purchasing Power Parity and Forecasts
- July 2, 2013: Another Carry Trade Update
- June 25, 2013: China and the Unravelling of the Carry Trade
- June 6, 2013: Global Money and Credit Squeeze
- May 22, 2013: Carry Trade Update
- May 9, 2013: Spread Compression and the Economy
- April 8, 2013: Japan and the Yen in the Context of the Global Paradigm
- March 18, 2013: Cyprus, the Dollar and Markets
- March 13, 2013: Hungary and Poland
- March 7, 2013: Developments in the Eurozone Current Account and Implications
- February 26, 2013: After the Gold Rush
- February 4, 2013: ECB Balance Sheet and the Euro
- January 28, 2013: Central Bank Balance Sheets
- January 21, 2013: US Money Supply and the Dash for Trash
- December 17, 2012: Peripheral Eurozone Still has a Long Way to Go to Regain Competitiveness
- November 22, 2012: Fiscal Cliff is a Red Herring
- November 1, 2012: Wealth, Money and Central Bank Insolvency
- October 23, 2012: Borrowing GDP from the Future
- October 11, 2012: Peripheral Eurozone Balance of Payments
- September 13, 2012: Does Open-Ended QE Change the Outlook?
- September 12, 2012: Are Ultra-Low Interest Rates Hurting the Economy?
- August 20, 2012: Complacency About Greek Exit is Misguided
- July 18, 2012: What Makes for a Successful Economy?
- July 10, 2012: Eurozone Fundamentals; Portugal and Greece are Key
- June 28, 2012: Dollar Carry Trade Unwind Set to Speed Up
- May 30, 2012: Euro, Swiss franc, Dollar Melt-up and US Crash
- May 3, 2012: Eurozone Crisis Update
- April 5, 2012: Faults of the European Monetary Union
- March 27, 2012: A Bubble in Complacency
- March 21, 2012: Recap of pi Economics’ View
- January 27, 2012: Update on Peripheral Eurozone Monetary Developments; ECB Leading us to Catastrophe
- January 19, 2012: Global Monetary Developments Update
- December 1, 2011: Turkey Will Require a Large Bailout
- November 17, 2011: Carry Trade, Emerging Market Update
- September 16, 2011: Brief Follow-Up Note on Euro and Dollar Carry Trade
- September 12, 2011: European Debt Crisis Finally Developing into a Currency Crisis
- August 23, 2011: US Money and Credit Statistics
- August 8, 2011: Thoughts on the Market Dislocation
- July 25, 2011: Latest Eurozone Bailout
- July 20, 2011: More on Gold
- July 13, 2011: Italy Stress Confirms that ECB Policy is Untenable
- July 7, 2011: Risk of Implosion of the Precious Metals Markets
- June 29, 2011: End of QE2 Means a Severe Tightening of Financial Conditions
- June 23, 2011: Update on Savings Rates as Risks of Deflationary Implosion Continue to Increase
- April 8, 2011: Blow-Off Phase of One of the Greatest Bubbles
- March 11, 2011: Japanese Earthquake – Market Tipping Point?
- March 9, 2011: Is Gold a Leading Indicator for this Bubble (and Burst)?
- February 23, 2011: Commodities and Equities Markets
- January 28, 2011: Turkey’s Monetary Policy and Implications
- January 5, 2011: Taking GDP from the Future
- November 23, 2010: Currency Implications of Carry Trade Unravelling
- November 12, 2010: European Debt: No Easy Solution
- November 4, 2010: Markets Post-QE2
- October 6, 2010: Gold Fundamentals and Implications
- August 26, 2010: Switzerland Foreign Exchange Intervention and Implications (Part 2)
- August 19, 2010: Switzerland Foreign Exchange Intervention and Implications (Part 1)
- August 9, 2010: The Fed, Q.E. and Markets
- August 5, 2010: US National Accounts Revisions
- July 7, 2010: Treasury Bond Yield Forecast and Market Developments
- June 11, 2010: The Current Relationship Between US Money Supply and the Stock Market
- May 10, 2010: Death Knell for the Euro
- May 4, 2010: Signs That This Could be the Crash
- April 27, 2010: The US Stock Market is Trading at Bubble Valuations
- April 22, 2010: Global Implications of the Greek Crisis
- April 13, 2010: Likely Developments Following the Greek Bailout
- March 26, 2010: No Savings, Excessive Debt and Deflation
- February 2, 2010: Coming Greek Bailout and Some Implications
- January 19, 2010: More on Liquidity and Markets
- January 7, 2010: Fed Policy: Update and Some Basic Principles
- December 2, 2009: Lack of Money Growth Points to Deflation
- November 23, 2009: Gold is Roughly Twice Fair Value
- November 11, 2009: The Savings Collapse and Inflation
- November 4, 2009: Fed Balance Sheet, Credit and Money
- October 19, 2009: I Have Probably Been Wrong About Government Bonds
- October 12, 2009: Bank Credit at New Low
- October 1, 2009: Shifting Trends in the Carry Trade
- September 25, 2009: Government Intervention and Market Valuation
- August 24, 2009: The Development of Correlations Across Markets
- August 19, 2009: Could There Be a Complete Market Collapse?
- August 14, 2009: Corporate Profits and Stock Market Valuation
- July 23, 2009: Self-Destructive Markets
- July 17, 2009: What are Government Bond Yields Telling Us?
- June 9, 2009: The Bubble and the Carry Trade
- May 18, 2009: Money, Credit and the Yield Curve
- May 8, 2009: Questions and Answers
- May 1, 2009: US Economy is Not About to Recover
- March 18, 2009: Fed Q.E.
- March 6, 2009: Hungary and Turkey Brief Update
- March 2, 2009: Yen Fundamentals
- February 5, 2009: Bad Banks and Sovereign Credit Risk
- December 24, 2008: Concluding Thoughts on an Extraordinary Year
- December 17, 2008: The Fed and the Yen
- December 4, 2008: Is the Fed Inflating Yet?
- November 13, 2008: US Stock Market is Not Cheap
- October 8, 2008: Very Very Scary
- October 6, 2008: Severe Monetary Dislocation
- September 21, 2008: More Thoughts on the Bailout
- September 18, 2008: Latest Developments
- September 15, 2008: Implications of Lehman Bankruptcy
- September 12, 2008: Deflation the New Theme in Markets
- September 5, 2008: Update – Credit Contraction Intensifies
- August 13, 2008: Carry Trade Meltdown? – Update
- August 5, 2008: Oil, the Carry Trade and Markets
- July 14, 2008: Fannie, Freddie, IndyMac
- July 2, 2008: Credit Contraction
- June 18, 2008: Rising Bond Yields
- June 12, 2008: US Flows of Funds Update
- May 13, 2008: Carry Trade and the Yield Curve
- April 15, 2008: Is the Fed Inflating?
- April 5, 2008: Turkish Current Account – Update
- April 2, 2008: US Q4 National Accounts Not Encouraging
- March 5, 2008: No Markets for Old Men
- February 6, 2008: The Dollar
- January 23, 2008: Fuzzy Friends Turn Nasty
- January 10, 2008: Things Fall Apart
- January 3, 2008: Japanese Balance of Payments and the Yen
- December 29, 2007: Financing of US Imbalances
- December 19, 2007: Deflationary Outcome to Credit Bubble & Carry Trade
- November 13, 2007: Despite Rising Commodities, Deflation is Big Threat
- November 6, 2007: Gold, Yields and Inflation
- November 1, 2007: Lessons from Past Credit Shocks
- October 5, 2007: US House Prices, the Cycle and Inflation
- September 6, 2007: Credit Bust Signals a Recession and Bear Market
- August 22, 2007: Discount Window Borrowings
- August 17, 2007: Update – The Fed Action is a Sell
- August 12, 2007: Liquidity Injections and Rate Cuts
- August 9, 2007: Comment on Markets – Total Financial Meltdown
- June 16, 2007: Carry Trade Bubble and 1980s Dollar Bubble Compared
- June 10, 2007: Different from the Previous Sell-Offs
- June 4, 2007: The Crash Must Be Very Close Now
- May 10, 2007: The Key to Understanding
- May 2, 2007: US Economy and Stock Market Cycle
- April 10, 2007: The Investment Cycle and the Stock Market
- March 2, 2007: US Monetary Policy and the Yen Carry Trade
- February 27, 2007: Thoughts on Markets
- January 18, 2007: Oil
- January 8, 2007: Update
- December 2, 2006: Yen Manipulation
- November 30, 2006: US Monetary Policy, Dollar and Stock Market
- November 21, 2006: Financial Jenga
- November 15, 2006: The Valuation of US Equities
- November 6, 2006: Japanese Covert Intervention and Implications
- November 2, 2006: Global Money Growth
- October 24, 2006: Gold and the End Game of the Bubble
- October 11, 2006: Yen Speculative Position Proves Existence of a Bubble
- September 24, 2006: Honey, I Blew Up the Fund
- September 11, 2006: US National Accounts Mysteries
- September 3, 2006: Implications of Record Yen Speculative Short Position
- August 25, 2006: US Interest Rate Structure, the Economy and the Dollar
- August 18, 2006: Japanese Monetary Tightening
- August 1, 2006: Recent US Economic Data
- July 19, 2006: Currency Madness 2
- July 13, 2006: Observations on Markets, Liquidity
- June 8, 2006: Quick Update on Market Developments
- June 2, 2006:Implications of Divergent US, European Monetary Conditions
- May 25, 2006: US Personal Financial Deficit
- May 22, 2006: Update – Watch the Dollar
- May 12, 2006: Brief Thoughts
- April 18, 2006: The Reasons Why a Major Crash May Well be Imminent
- April 6, 2006: Gold, Stocks and the Cycle
- March 17, 2006: Bank of Japan Monetary Policy and the Yen
- March 9, 2006: Crash? – Update
- March 7, 2006: Why are Bond Yields Rising?
- March 3, 2006: Liquidity and Dislocation
- February 10, 2006: Is the Dislocation Beginning?
- February 2, 2006: Currency Madness
- January 23, 2006: Recap and Update
- January 11, 2006: Is the Yield Curve Foretelling a US Recession?