FT ‘Insight’ column, 26 June 2007 There are growing concerns that the credit cycle may be turning down but so far the impact on stock markets has been fairly limited. Investors take comfort in three misguided beliefs. They believe that equities are not expensive and that there is no sign of any diminution in the […]
The Credit Bust Signals a Recession and a Bear Market
Financial News, September 2007 The crisis afflicting credit markets has generally been perceived to be the result of specific problems, such as the weakness of the US housing market or the opacity of certain credit derivatives. This focus on specific issues makes the credit crisis seem amenable to solution and has encouraged stock market investors […]
Despite Rising Commodity Prices, Deflation is the Big Threat from the Credit Bust
The Price Report, November 2007 There is little doubt, in my mind, that we are presently at one of the rare defining moments in financial history, a time that will be referred to forevermore by economic and market historians, much as is the Wall Street crash of 1929 or the credit and banking crisis of […]
Look Beneath the Golden Gleam
Financial Times, 15 September 2003 Optimism is stirring in financial markets and the US economy. Recent indicators have suggested that enormous fiscal and monetary stimulus is having an impact. Stock markets have held on to substantial gains and bond yields have risen as forecasts for growth have been revised upwards. Supply-side arguments revolving around strong […]
Seeing Through ‘The Matrix Economy’
24 November 2003 In the movie ‘The Matrix’ reality is not what it seems. On the surface all is well with the world but to the hero, Neo, something is not quite right. He is offered the choice of a blue pill, which will allow him to continue on with his life blissfully ignorant of […]