Research

pi Economics research samples

Shorter notes:

The Crash Must Be Very Close Now
June 4, 2007
Things Fall Apart
January 10, 2008
Credit Contraction
July 2, 2008

‘Monthly’ research notes:

Ponzi Finance and the Mis-Pricing of Risk, February 2007
The Credit Crisis is Not Over – It has Barely Begun, May 2008
The Currency Carry Trade and Emerging Markets – the Next Phase of the Global Crisis, July-August 2008

pi Economics research available to clients

Monthlies

February 2015: Summary of the pi Economics Perspective
January 2015: Implications of the Oil Carry Trade Crash
November-December 2014: The UK is a Bubble Economy and the Eurozone is Not
October 2014: The Relationship Between the Carry Regime and Deflation
September 2014: Understanding Volatility and the Nature of Carry Trades
July-August 2014: Potential Yen Strength Threatens a Japanese Deflation Shock
June 2014: What Explains the Pattern of Financial Inflows into Key Emerging Economies?
May 2014: Three Unconventional Approaches to Estimating the Overvaluation of US Financial Assets and Implications for Fed Policy
April 2014: Eurozone Credit Contracts but Debt Overhang Remains
March 2014: The Global Debt Disaster and Where it Will Manifest
February 2014: The Potential for a Deflation Shock in Europe and the US

Short Notes

February 2, 2015: Greece and the ECB’s QE Program
January 26, 2015: QE, Risk Sharing and the Euro
January 20, 2015: What to Look For Following ECB QE
January 15, 2015: Swiss Franc Implications
January 12, 2015: Follow-up on Oil and the Carry Trade
December 15, 2014: Carry Contraction Intensifies
November 28, 2014: Commodity Prices and Exports Growth
November 20, 2014: The Evolution of Global Monetary Conditions
October 30, 2014: Money Growth After the End of QE
October 13, 2014: The Carry Crash and QE4 – What to Look For
October 2, 2014: Is This the Beginning of the Carry Crash?
September 3, 2014: ECB QE May Well Reveal the True Cost of Interventionist Monetary Policies
August 15, 2014: Dollar Carry Trade to Face Renewed Pressure
July 29, 2014: Closer Look at the China Carry Trade
July 21, 2014: Weak Links
July 3, 2014: Moneyness, Risk and Inflation or Deflation
June 12, 2014: Eurozone After the ECB Action
May 30, 2014: Liquidity Conditions Update
May 5, 2014: Vanishing Point
April 23, 2014: Recent Developments in the Currency Carry Trade
April 3, 2014: Liquidity Provision and the Nature of Bubbles and Crises
March 11, 2014: Ever Closer to the Global Deflation Shock
February 27, 2014: China and the Carry Trade
February 5, 2014: The Deflation Shock Has Begun
January 30, 2014: Turkey Rate Rise Will Not Save the Lira
January 28, 2014: Real Treasury Yields and the Dynamic of the Asset Bubble
January 16, 2014: Monetary Trends in the Fragile Five Highlight the Dire Outlook for Turkey
December 12, 2013: The Eurozone Monetary Downturn is Entering a More Dangerous Phase
November 15, 2013: Carry, Leverage and Corporate Profits
November 1, 2013: The Big Picture
October 28, 2013: The Flow of Funds and Leverage in the US Economy
September 20, 2013: Markets Summary and Forecast
August 29, 2013: Some Monetary Fundamentals
August 15, 2013: US GDP and Savings Revisions
August 2, 2013: Carry Trade Currency Purchasing Power Parity and Forecasts
July 2, 2013: Another Carry Trade Update
June 25, 2013: China and the Unravelling of the Carry Trade
June 6, 2013: Global Money and Credit Squeeze
May 22, 2013: Carry Trade Update
May 9, 2013: Spread Compression and the Economy
April 8, 2013: Japan and the Yen in the Context of the Global Paradigm
March 18, 2013: Cyprus, the Dollar and Markets
March 13, 2013: Hungary and Poland
March 7, 2013: Developments in the Eurozone Current Account and Implications
February 26, 2013: After the Gold Rush
February 4, 2013: ECB Balance Sheet and the Euro
January 28, 2013: Central Bank Balance Sheets
January 21, 2013: US Money Supply and the Dash for Trash
December 17, 2012: Peripheral Eurozone Still has a Long Way to Go to Regain Competitiveness
November 22, 2012: Fiscal Cliff is a Red Herring
November 1, 2012: Wealth, Money and Central Bank Insolvency
October 23, 2012: Borrowing GDP from the Future
October 11, 2012: Peripheral Eurozone Balance of Payments
September 13, 2012: Does Open-Ended QE Change the Outlook?
September 12, 2012: Are Ultra-Low Interest Rates Hurting the Economy?
August 20, 2012: Complacency About Greek Exit is Misguided
July 18, 2012: What Makes for a Successful Economy?
July 10, 2012: Eurozone Fundamentals; Portugal and Greece are Key
June 28, 2012: Dollar Carry Trade Unwind Set to Speed Up
May 30, 2012: Euro, Swiss franc, Dollar Melt-up and US Crash
May 3, 2012: Eurozone Crisis Update
April 5, 2012: Faults of the European Monetary Union
March 27, 2012: A Bubble in Complacency
March 21, 2012: Recap of pi Economics’ View
January 27, 2012: Update on Peripheral Eurozone Monetary Developments; ECB Leading us to Catastrophe
January 19, 2012: Global Monetary Developments Update
December 1, 2011: Turkey Will Require a Large Bailout
November 17, 2011: Carry Trade, Emerging Market Update
September 16, 2011: Brief Follow-Up Note on Euro and Dollar Carry Trade
September 12, 2011: European Debt Crisis Finally Developing into a Currency Crisis
August 23, 2011: US Money and Credit Statistics
August 8, 2011: Thoughts on the Market Dislocation
July 25, 2011: Latest Eurozone Bailout
July 20, 2011: More on Gold
July 13, 2011: Italy Stress Confirms that ECB Policy is Untenable
July 7, 2011: Risk of Implosion of the Precious Metals Markets
June 29, 2011: End of QE2 Means a Severe Tightening of Financial Conditions
June 23, 2011: Update on Savings Rates as Risks of Deflationary Implosion Continue to Increase
April 8, 2011: Blow-Off Phase of One of the Greatest Bubbles
March 11, 2011: Japanese Earthquake – Market Tipping Point?
March 9, 2011: Is Gold a Leading Indicator for this Bubble (and Burst)?
February 23, 2011: Commodities and Equities Markets
January 28, 2011: Turkey’s Monetary Policy and Implications
January 5, 2011: Taking GDP from the Future
November 23, 2010: Currency Implications of Carry Trade Unravelling
November 12, 2010: European Debt: No Easy Solution
November 4, 2010: Markets Post-QE2
October 6, 2010: Gold Fundamentals and Implications
August 26, 2010: Switzerland Foreign Exchange Intervention and Implications (Part 2)
August 19, 2010: Switzerland Foreign Exchange Intervention and Implications (Part 1)
August 9, 2010: The Fed, Q.E. and Markets
August 5, 2010: US National Accounts Revisions
July 7, 2010: Treasury Bond Yield Forecast and Market Developments
June 11, 2010: The Current Relationship Between US Money Supply and the Stock Market
May 10, 2010: Death Knell for the Euro
May 4, 2010: Signs That This Could be the Crash
April 27, 2010: The US Stock Market is Trading at Bubble Valuations
April 22, 2010: Global Implications of the Greek Crisis
April 13, 2010: Likely Developments Following the Greek Bailout
March 26, 2010: No Savings, Excessive Debt and Deflation
February 2, 2010: Coming Greek Bailout and Some Implications
January 19, 2010: More on Liquidity and Markets
January 7, 2010: Fed Policy: Update and Some Basic Principles
December 2, 2009: Lack of Money Growth Points to Deflation
November 23, 2009: Gold is Roughly Twice Fair Value
November 11, 2009: The Savings Collapse and Inflation
November 4, 2009: Fed Balance Sheet, Credit and Money
October 19, 2009: I Have Probably Been Wrong About Government Bonds
October 12, 2009: Bank Credit at New Low
October 1, 2009: Shifting Trends in the Carry Trade
September 25, 2009: Government Intervention and Market Valuation
August 24, 2009: The Development of Correlations Across Markets
August 19, 2009: Could There Be a Complete Market Collapse?
August 14, 2009: Corporate Profits and Stock Market Valuation
July 23, 2009: Self-Destructive Markets
July 17, 2009: What are Government Bond Yields Telling Us?
June 9, 2009: The Bubble and the Carry Trade
May 18, 2009: Money, Credit and the Yield Curve
May 8, 2009: Questions and Answers
May 1, 2009: US Economy is Not About to Recover
March 18, 2009: Fed Q.E.
March 6, 2009: Hungary and Turkey Brief Update
March 2, 2009: Yen Fundamentals
February 5, 2009: Bad Banks and Sovereign Credit Risk
December 24, 2008: Concluding Thoughts on an Extraordinary Year
December 17, 2008: The Fed and the Yen
December 4, 2008: Is the Fed Inflating Yet?
November 13, 2008: US Stock Market is Not Cheap
October 8, 2008: Very Very Scary
October 6, 2008: Severe Monetary Dislocation
September 21, 2008: More Thoughts on the Bailout
September 18, 2008: Latest Developments
September 15, 2008: Implications of Lehman Bankruptcy
September 12, 2008: Deflation the New Theme in Markets
September 5, 2008: Update – Credit Contraction Intensifies
August 13, 2008: Carry Trade Meltdown? – Update
August 5, 2008: Oil, the Carry Trade and Markets
July 14, 2008: Fannie, Freddie, IndyMac
July 2, 2008: Credit Contraction
June 18, 2008: Rising Bond Yields
June 12, 2008: US Flows of Funds Update
May 13, 2008: Carry Trade and the Yield Curve
April 15, 2008: Is the Fed Inflating?
April 5, 2008: Turkish Current Account – Update
April 2, 2008: US Q4 National Accounts Not Encouraging
March 5, 2008: No Markets for Old Men
February 6, 2008: The Dollar
January 23, 2008: Fuzzy Friends Turn Nasty
January 10, 2008: Things Fall Apart
January 3, 2008: Japanese Balance of Payments and the Yen
December 29, 2007: Financing of US Imbalances
December 19, 2007: Deflationary Outcome to Credit Bubble & Carry Trade
November 13, 2007: Despite Rising Commodities, Deflation is Big Threat
November 6, 2007: Gold, Yields and Inflation
November 1, 2007: Lessons from Past Credit Shocks
October 5, 2007: US House Prices, the Cycle and Inflation
September 6, 2007: Credit Bust Signals a Recession and Bear Market
August 22, 2007: Discount Window Borrowings
August 17, 2007: Update – The Fed Action is a Sell
August 12, 2007: Liquidity Injections and Rate Cuts
August 9, 2007: Comment on Markets – Total Financial Meltdown
June 16, 2007: Carry Trade Bubble and 1980s Dollar Bubble Compared
June 10, 2007: Different from the Previous Sell-Offs
June 4, 2007: The Crash Must Be Very Close Now
May 10, 2007: The Key to Understanding
May 2, 2007: US Economy and Stock Market Cycle
April 10, 2007: The Investment Cycle and the Stock Market
March 2, 2007: US Monetary Policy and the Yen Carry Trade
February 27, 2007: Thoughts on Markets
January 18, 2007: Oil
January 8, 2007: Update
December 2, 2006: Yen Manipulation
November 30, 2006: US Monetary Policy, Dollar and Stock Market
November 21, 2006: Financial Jenga
November 15, 2006: The Valuation of US Equities
November 6, 2006: Japanese Covert Intervention and Implications
November 2, 2006: Global Money Growth
October 24, 2006: Gold and the End Game of the Bubble
October 11, 2006: Yen Speculative Position Proves Existence of a Bubble
September 24, 2006: Honey, I Blew Up the Fund
September 11, 2006: US National Accounts Mysteries
September 3, 2006: Implications of Record Yen Speculative Short Position
August 25, 2006: US Interest Rate Structure, the Economy and the Dollar
August 18, 2006: Japanese Monetary Tightening
August 1, 2006: Recent US Economic Data
July 19, 2006: Currency Madness 2
July 13, 2006: Observations on Markets, Liquidity
June 8, 2006: Quick Update on Market Developments
June 2, 2006:Implications of Divergent US, European Monetary Conditions
May 25, 2006: US Personal Financial Deficit
May 22, 2006: Update – Watch the Dollar
May 12, 2006: Brief Thoughts
April 18, 2006: The Reasons Why a Major Crash May Well be Imminent
April 6, 2006: Gold, Stocks and the Cycle
March 17, 2006: Bank of Japan Monetary Policy and the Yen
March 9, 2006: Crash? – Update
March 7, 2006: Why are Bond Yields Rising?
March 3, 2006: Liquidity and Dislocation
February 10, 2006: Is the Dislocation Beginning?
February 2, 2006: Currency Madness
January 23, 2006: Recap and Update
January 11, 2006: Is the Yield Curve Foretelling a US Recession?